Survey-Reported Coverage in 2019-2022 and Implications for Unwinding Medicaid Continuous Eligibility.

Importance: Policy changes and the COVID-19 pandemic affected health coverage rates, and the "unwinding" of Medicaid's continuous coverage provision in 2023 and 2024 may cause widespread coverage loss. Recent coverage patterns in national survey and administrative data can inform these issues. Objective: To assess national and state changes in survey-based Medicaid, private insurance, and uninsured rates between 2019 and 2022, as well as how these changes compare with administrative Medicaid enrollment totals. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzes nationally representative survey data for all US residents in the American Community Survey (ACS) from 2019 to 2022 compared with administrative data on Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Data analysis was conducted between June 2023 and January 2024. Exposures: The COVID-19 pandemic, the Medicaid continuous coverage provision, and policy efforts to increase Marketplace coverage. Main Outcomes and Measures: Medicaid coverage (self-reported [ACS] and administratively recorded [CMS]), survey-reported uninsured, Medicare, and private insurance status. Results: A nationally representative sample consisted of 12 506 584 US residents of all ages (survey-weighted 59.7% aged 19-64 years and 50.6% female). CMS statistics showed an increase in Medicaid coverage of 5.2 percentage points as a share of the population from 2019 to 2022. However, changes in the uninsured rate and survey-reported Medicaid were smaller: -1.2 (95% CI, -1.3 to -1.2) percentage points and 1.3 (95% CI, 1.2-1.4) percentage points, respectively. There was a 3.9 percentage point increase in the ACS's "undercount" of Medicaid enrollment, compared with CMS data, from 2019 to 2022. This undercount was larger among children than adults but smaller in states that recently expanded Medicaid. Rates of additional forms of coverage (such as private insurance) among those in Medicaid also grew during this time. Conclusion and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the uninsured rate declined considerably from 2019 to 2022 but was just one-fourth as large as the growth in administrative Medicaid enrollment under the pandemic continuous coverage provision. Survey-based Medicaid growth was far smaller than administrative growth. This suggests that many people who remained enrolled in Medicaid during the pandemic did not realize that their coverage had continued. These findings have implications for projecting uninsured changes during unwinding, as well as the effect of continuous coverage policies on continuity of care.

Medicare Eligibility and Reported Support for Proposals to Expand Medicare.

This study estimates the association between Medicare eligibility and support for recent proposals to expand program participation and benefits.

Small Marketplace Premiums Pose Financial And Administrative Burdens: Evidence From Massachusetts, 2016-17.

Health insurance premiums are primarily understood to pose financial barriers to coverage. However, the need to remit monthly premium payments may also create administrative burdens that negatively affect coverage, even in cases where affordability is a negligible concern. Using 2016-17 data from the Massachusetts health insurance Marketplace and a natural experiment, we evaluated how coverage retention was affected by the introduction of nominal (less than $10 for most enrollees) monthly premiums for plans that previously had $0 premiums. Compared with plans that maintained $0 premiums, those that took on nominal premiums saw enrollment fall by 14 percent over the following year. This attrition was attributable to terminations for nonpayment; most terminations occurred at the end of January, implying that a significant number of affected enrollees never initiated premium payments. These findings suggest that even very small premiums act as enrollment barriers, which may sometimes reflect administrative burdens more than financial hardship. Several policy approaches could mitigate adverse coverage outcomes related to nominal premiums.

Medicaid by Any Other Name? Investigating Malleability of Partisan Attitudes Toward the Public Program.

CONTEXT: Medicaid is the largest health insurance program by enrollment in the United States. The program varies across states across a variety of dimensions, including what it's called; some states use state-specific naming conventions (e.g., MassHealth in Massachusetts). METHODS: In a pre-registered online survey experiment (n = 5,807), we test whether public opinion shifts in response to the use of state-specific Medicaid program names or the provision of information about program enrollment. FINDINGS: We find that replacing "Medicaid" with a state-specific name results in a large increase in the share of respondents reporting that they "haven't heard enough to say" how they feel about the program. This corresponds to a decrease in both favorable and unfavorable attitudes toward the program. Though confusion increases among all partisan groups, there is evidence that the state-specific names may also strengthen positive perceptions among Republicans. Providing enrollment information generally does not affect public opinion. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings offer suggestive evidence that state-specific program names may muddle understanding of the program as a government-provided benefit. Policymakers seeking to bolster support for the program or claim credit for expanding or improving it may be better served simply referring to it as "Medicaid."

Insurance Coverage Transitions After Disenrollment From Medicaid in Minnesota.

This cohort study examines insurance transitions after Medicaid disenrollment for Minnesota residents aged 64 years or younger.

Popular to a Point: The Enduring Political Challenges of the Public Option.

Policy Points A decade after failing to make it into the Affordable Care Act, the public option reemerged as a health reform goal at both the national and state levels, with polls reporting strong, bipartisan support. A 2020 poll that probed both support for one public option approach (Medicare "buy-in") and attitudes toward government suggests that differences in these attitudes could plague reform advocates' efforts. Although the COVID-19 pandemic viscerally highlighted the need for a more coherent health care system-including universal coverage-other recent evolutions in the broader US political context could undermine reform.

Turnover in Zero-Premium Status Among Health Insurance Marketplace Plans Available to Low-Income Enrollees.

Importance: Recent subsidy enhancements in Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces made many low-income enrolles (below 150% of the federal poverty level [FPL]) eligible for 2 free silver-tier plans. eligible for 2 free silver-tier plans. However, an unintended consequence of this structure is that the identity of which silver plans are free will often "turn over" between years, requiring that enrollees actively initiate premium payment (or lose coverage). The prevalence of this free-plan turnover is not known. Objective: To measure the prevalence of free-plan turnover in ACA Marketplaces and to estimate how many enrollees below 150% of FPL are likely to be affected. Design Setting and Participants: This observational cross-sectional study used data on plan offerings and premiums in 33 state ACA Marketplaces using HealthCare.gov in 2021 and 2022, along with estimates of county-level enrollee characteristics and plan selection patterns. The enrollment-weighted share of county markets affected by free-plan turnover was quantified, along with the association of turnover with enrollee and market characteristics. Estimates of the number of affected low-income enrollees were calculated using the data plus statistics reported in past research. Data were analyzed from November 21, 2021, to February 28, 2022. Results: This study found that turnover of zero-premium plans was quite common, with 93% of HealthCare.gov counties (weighted by enrollment) experiencing at least 1 zero-premium plan in 2021 turning over to nonfree in 2022; 84% of counties experienced turnover of all $0 silver plans from 2021 to 2022. This turnover affected an estimated 1.36 million people with incomes below 150% of FPL. Turnover was more common in counties with a higher share of non-White enrollees, in Medicaid nonexpansion states, in counties with more carriers, and in counties with changes in the number of offered plans. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that owing to the prevalence of zero-premium plan turnover, many low-income ACA enrollees faced elevated risk of disenrollment at the start of 2022. Outreach to affected enrollees and other actions to encourage coverage retention and midyear reenrollment could help mitigate coverage losses.

The Affordable Care Act's Missing Consensus: Values, Attitudes, and Experiences Associated with Competing Health Reform Preferences.

Ten years after its enactment, public support for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) still only reaches a scant majority. Candidates for the presidency-and the sitting president-have endorsed health reforms that would radically transition US health care away from the current system upon which the ACA was built. Few opinion surveys to date have captured dominant preferences among alternative health reform policies or characterized attitudes and experiences that might be associated with policy preferences. Using a 2019 nationally representative telephone survey, this article considers how variations in political values, attitudes toward government, and experiences with the health care system relate to competing health reform preferences. Differences between those who favor Medicare for All over building on the ACA largely reflect different levels of satisfaction with the status quo and views of private health insurance. By contrast, differences between ACA supporters and those who would favor replacing it with a state-based alternative reflect sharply different political values and attitudes. Key differences remain significant after controlling for demographic, health, and political characteristics. Overwhelming public support still eludes the ACA, and reaching consensus on future directions for health reform will remain challenging given differences in underlying beliefs.

The US Affordable Care Act: Reflections and directions at the close of a decade.

In this month's Editorial, PLOS Medicine Academic Editor Zirui Song and his colleague Adrianna McIntyre discuss outcomes and possible futures for the United States Affordable Care Act as it nears the ten year mark.